The objective of this project is to develop a scenario model and a dynamic model of the North Sea electricity production system. These are used to determine flexibility and storage requirements and to elucidate path-dependency in its long-term development towards carbon-neutrality as a function of demand and technology supply. Scenario drivers will include deep energy efficiency improvement in built environment, industry and transport and their impact on energy demand patterns, space availability, new and improved energy technology such as CCS and large scale renewables.

Expected results of the project are:

  1. A compilation of a range of quantified and parameterized development scenarios driving the North Sea region energy system. Building from authoritative scenarios, this will be done in an iterative process with key stakeholders and selected consortium partners.
  2. High-level top-down scenario model and bottom-up dynamic model for North Sea region energy system capturing relevant complexities. Based on existing energy modelling infrastructure and partly based on results and insights from the other ESR projects.
  3. Simulation exercises with the models exploring energy system development under varying conditions (scenarios) with regard to energy demand, new or improved energy technology and large-scale renewables. Determination of flexibility and storage requirements if not limitations. Modelling exercises delivering spatial-temporal explicit output on the deployment of key renewable energy technologies, spatial-temporal explicit output with respect to the required roll-out of new energy infrastructure (e.g. electricity, various gases (methane, hydrogen, CO2), heat and flexibility and storage options.
  4. Extensive scenario, sensitivity & uncertainty analysis to support formulation of clear & robust policy recommendations.


Planned secondments: Scottish Power Energy Networks (Scotland), the Swedish Energy Agency and to Chalmers University (Sweden).
Main supervisor: prof. dr. André Faaij.

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